If a scientific paper appeared in a major journal saying that the planet has warmed twice as much as previously thought, that would be front-page news in every major paper around the planet. But what would happen if a paper was published demonstrating that the planet may have warmed up only half as much as previously thought?
Nothing.
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Commence the attacking of the source.
- 4 votes
Ok...
Ross McKitrick is Associate Professor in the Department of Economics at the University of Guelph, Ontario (since 2001[2]) and, since 2002, Senior Fellow of the Fraser Institute, a Canadian free-market policy think tank that opposes the Kyoto Protocol.
The Fraser Institute is a conservative libertarian think tank based in Canada.
In short, he works for a bunch of people who would kill you and your family to protect their bank balances.
- 5 votes
but he has a point, and articulates his reasoning in the use of his method. He may have enguaged in the investigation because of his politics, but his methods raise good questions about the data which means tha the data should be better verified by scientists.
- 5 votes
geez
so this guy is a member of the ipcc.. you dont think these deniers brought this up?
the urban heat island bs has already debunked, I'm betting the weathering of white paint will be as well.
It's kinda of funny they are trying to debunk a report(ipcc) that apparently they helped create and that was vetted by 1000's of scienctists, with one that hasnt an was done by an economist.
- 3 votes
according to senate testimony, only 52 scientists contributed to the publication of the report.
what this guy does is raise a legitimate question about the temperature data and its possible corruption due to mis-care of the equipment in poor and unstable parts of the world. Lets reexamine the data and make sure it has not been corrupted, and if it has, take steps to make sure it is collected properly going forward.
- 5 votes
according to senate testimony, only 52 scientists contributed to the publication of the report.
Which report? The Fourth Assessment Report, the Summary for Policy Makers, or the Synthesis Report? Those are all very different animals and often get confused in the press (despite the rather obvious names). According to the IPCC:
More than 800 contributing authors and more than 450 lead authors were involved in the writing of the AR4.
...which is what both the SPM and the Synthesis reports are based on. The entire point of the SPM was to involve governments in its authorship so that they would be responsible for its content. However, the scientists also remained involved so that its technical content could not disagree with the AR4.
I mentioned it because I thought it was important to cite, however, I stand in slight error:
According to the Associated Press, during the IPCC Summary for Policymakers meeting in April 2007, only 52 scientists participated.
When I had originally read the information, I missed the "summary" part. Obviously, that is important as a summary of the full report does not require 1000 scientists to contribute. it is important to note that many scientists complained about the language in the summary as they felt it miscommunicates the intent of their contributions in the full report.
There is link somewhere I can give you that send you to a senate summary of letters and testimony that I think causes one to pull back slightly and take a second look at what this consensus might be. I have to find it though.
A very interesting investigation.
While I think their model is a good place to start solving a data bias problem, it is not conclusive as to what the real tempratures are.
BTW, Bodhi1, I know you understand the qualitative differance from a researcher writing an article and discussing his researchmethods and having that article published in a conservative periodical, and an editorial written by a reporter who is simply asserting the existence of information and gives no spesifics nor scholarly works to back his position. This is a good article worth reading.
- 7 votes
This is a good article worth reading.
[sits staring at screen in slack-jawed wonder]
Uh....thanks!
- 5 votes
this article is simply what many of us global warming unscheptics (best word to describe me at least, not an evangelist or proponent, too strong of words for me) want. The gobbledygook from editorial pages that has no supporting materials for their assertions does not enlighten anyone to new information. This article did, however, and unless someone is a rabid evangelist, they should acknowledge that.
- 6 votes
actually i have heard of the urban heat island effect for years.. they wanted us all to believe the model creators missed that.. or never lived in a city and had their feet burnt by the black top.
Problem is these stations are the only places we get the data... and it is interesting they quote the lower atmosphere temp reading as these gusy were going ape crap over the mid atmosphere as we didnt have any accurate measurements there.. and then when they also showed the world was warming, they simpoly refused to look at the data..
peopel also have to realise a couple things
the earth climate system is on a ballance beem, it takes very little unballance to tip it over. climate change can and has occured very very rapidly int he past, like years and not centuries or eons.
Zero sciencetists can deny.. find me 1 single one bodhi that denys co2 alone will heat a closed system when energy is introduced. More co2 = more heat..
now the only real question left is how much of the tons of co2 we have put in the atmosphere, changing the make up of the atmosphere at a statistcally significant level, is absorbed byt he oceans and forests.
The greennhouse gases, are what makes this planet livable, otherwise we would be a snowball..
Ok bodhi i challenge you to find someone that denys co2 reflects infrared light or someone that denys how much co2 we have put into the atmosphere.
I will however entertain the differnt carbon sequestration theories.. that currently are keeping the levels of co2 in the atmosphere to about 1/2 of what we have actually put up there.
- 1 vote
It should be noted again.. the Cato institute has an agenda and vested interest in proving global warming is wrong. And you should read that with that in mind, just like you shoudl read someoen else political like al gore, and understand that as a touter, he wil cherry pick the data, just like these guys do..
it's best to get your science from a real science journel
and really if you want to learn something, try the science forums where the debates are a bit more educated but just as heated.(heated oh my are you admitting their are deniers??) NO and yes.. It's more of a statement of scienctists who are the most nick picky peopel on the planet.. There is no greater joy then to poke a single solitary hole, even a small one, in someones published work as 99% of science is proving someone else wrong rather than coming up with somethign new. (it's also why theories are always theories and such, science will never say 100% sure)
You coudl say somethign liek if a 200 pound man eats 10 grams of cyanide he will die within 20 mintues 100% of the time.. and some newly graduated kneebiter will point out, not if the man fell into a black hole after eating the cyanide
arguing in forums liek this is mostly worthless.. it's only good to see the thinsg the masses will understand and which ways they are easily swayed fromt he truth.
- 1 vote
so you dispute the validity of his concern about the temperature data collected in unstable and poor areas of the world? science does not work by ignoring doubts about data. He raised a good point, and climatologists either need to explain that they have already thought of those concerns and investigated the possible data corruption, or accept the concern and investigate it.
- 4 votes
climatologists either need to explain that they have already thought of those concerns and investigated the possible data corruption, or accept the concern and investigate it.
Dr. Rasmus Benestad did just that. From his summary:
So in summary, I think the results of [McKitrick and Michaels'] analysis and conclusions are invalid because
- They do not properly account for dependencies.
- They over-fit the regression.
- Their results look unreasonable.
- They "cherry pick" the MSU data that gives the lowest trend
There are a lot of comments, most of which are well worth reading. There is even some discussion and response between Dr. Ross McKitrick, Rasmus Benestad, and Dr. Gavin Schmidt (climate modeler at NASA Goddard).
The paper by McKitrick and Michaels can be found here [.pdf].
As to Dr. Michaels' claim that his paper should have been met with much fanfare and press, it should be noted that it was met with about the same amount as most other papers of it's kind (and far more than any other in JGR-Atmosphere). Further, given that both of the paper's authors have written op-eds on the paper, it is likely it has received more than it's fair share of newsprint. Then again, Dr. Michael's claim has changed little. His major evidence that there is some great conspiracy that favors anthropogenic climate change? The lack of peer-reviewed evidence against it. Generally, in science, this is just considered a lack of evidence, not an argument for something else.
- 1 vote
He's an economist not a scientist, apparently you don't have to be an actual scientist to write a scientific paper contradicting global warming. And as pointed out above, he's got a lot financially riding on this.
- 2 votes
who cares what he is, if he brings up a valid question about data validity, it should get answered. According to Jason, it has and I am satisfied with it.
- 3 votes
of course I am what? Satisfied that his questions about data have been answered?
So, because I am honest enough with my self that I can say "hey, that crack pot knee-jerk denier actually has a good point, lets see what happens when we answer it" some how it makes me a closeted denier?
- 4 votes
This article spends half its time assuming what the reactions of everyone else should be, and the other half whining about those expectations not being met. What a great racket.
We are wasting our time, Bodhi1. My advice is just back off, but keep names and email addresses of the most vociferous cultists and in a couple of years we'll remind them of their opinions now.
Yeah? Name a GOP candidate for President who doesn't realize the danger of global warming.
- 1 vote
Gwenny,
Other than complaining about those who think Global Warming is man made and attempt to get ohers on board, what is it that you are doing to help the world population adjust to the new reality that will await them if they do not act now?
- 3 votes
those who think Global Warming is man made and attempt to get ohers on board
The GW cult is doomed to failure because 1) They are wrong. Climate change is natural and, while it has been impacted by human activity, it is not CAUSED by human activity; 2) Their narrow focus and their ridiculous claims will ultimately hurt progress as the ignorant, uneducated public who can only barely digest sound bites sees reality at odds with the hype (coldest winter on record in some parts of Australia last year/record breaking cold in California destroying entire crops/expanding of parts of the Antarctic ice fields); 3) We don't need to change the Earth, we need to change ourselves and buying a new "green" car is not enough.
what is it that you are doing to help the world population adjust to the new reality that will await them if they do not act now?
Way more than the GW cultists, for sure. The focus on CO2 is wrong and the changes that need to be made far more sweeping and drastic than anything they are promoting. One thing I have done is be defiantly anti-anthropomorphic global warming since at least 1994 (Had you even heard of climate change in 1994?),advocating that we expand our understanding of the situation and make changes to our society and personal lives. My second website, which is currently down, I have to see what happened, was about the environment and my tagline is: The Earth is not dying - it is being killed. And the people who are killing it have names and addresses. - U. Utah Phillips I belong to the tree-hugging, Earth worshiping movement that goes back over a century and has been trying to raise folks consciousness the entire time. I've advocated Earth friendly living since the 70s (I did not even get a drivers license until I was 30, preferring walking whenever possible), even running a youth group called GaiaNauts: Children of Spaceship Earth for several years and inculcating children with an adoration and respect for our lovely planet. I was recycling in the 1980s, going around our neighborhood with my baby in a stroller, picking up trash and taking the aluminum to the recycling center long before it was "hip". I participated in the first Earth Day when I was 13 yo. I have walked my talk for almost 40 years.
- 3 votes
Wow, you take humans out of the global warming equation and there is no global warming. No @!$%# sherlock.
- 1 vote
I love the 'warm fuzzies' - 'thousands of scientists have vetted the report'. The scientific community works like any other. A few respected people put forth a premise. Most accept what they say at face value. A few may read the study critically. A few may even express private concerns about reservations but they know that the 'names' will have more instant credibility. This process has been seen many times over and over in many other scientific areas. Ask Pamela Drew about GMOs. The 'consensus' was that there was no demonstrable problem so proceed.
- 1 vote
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